EP674 | 🦋
- The host reviews his strong first-half trading performance, highlighting strategic rotation from satellites and substrates in Q1 to passive component pricing power in Q2.
- The mid-to-late June market correction was primarily driven by mechanical end-of-quarter portfolio rebalancing by sovereign and pension funds, rather than geopolitics or interest rate panics.
- Investors should beware of hot thematic stocks that have plunged below their 60-day moving average (quarterly line), as massive overhead resistance will likely stunt future rebounds.
- Apple's sudden laptop price hikes reveal that high upstream component costs are finally squeezing the consumer end, prompting a crucial test of end-user demand resilience.
First-Half Performance Review: From Locked Up Stock Frenzies to Price Hike Themes
Reflecting on the first half of 2026, most market participants achieved spectacular investment results. The host's portfolio performance peaked between April and May, during which a highly unusual phenomenon occurred: several core holdings surged so rapidly they were placed under "disposal/cautionary" trading status. Normally, such restrictions cool down volatility, but in this unique environment, these restricted stocks turned into super-performers, experiencing compounding gains. Since capital was locked in these accounts and unable to trade, the host was forced to hold through the entire massive wave of gains.
In terms of thematic rotation, the portfolio focused heavily on low-Earth orbit satellites, substrates, and glass substrates in Q1, taking profits near the end of the quarter. In Q2, capital was promptly reallocated into industrial pricing-power plays, specifically passive components and power devices. This timely rotation, paired with the broader market's secular uptrend, cemented an incredibly strong foundation for the first half of the year.
US Portfolio Adjustments: Reallocation Strategy and Long-term Giant Bets
In the US market, stark stock price divergence has prompted a shift in trading tactics. Instead of immediately cutting losses on weaker names, the strategy has turned to buying the dip on mega-caps as they pull back to critical moving averages. To fund these maneuvers, the host trimmed a portion of his Tesla shares, mainly to reallocate capital into SpaceX—a private equity bet on Elon Musk's long-term vision. Other semiconductor positions like Marvell were also trimmed slightly during the recent market swings.
In the software sector, Palantir has shown sluggish price action due to its elevated valuation. Consequently, the position is being held without any further accumulation. Conversely, cybersecurity leader CrowdStrike remains a high-conviction name with continued adding. For long-term positioning, the host favors Google due to its stellar cost-cutting efficiency and seamless model integration. Additionally, he is patiently waiting for optimal entry points to expand holdings in Apple and Microsoft as they consolidate before the next edge AI cycle.
| Ticker | Main Action | Portfolio Stance |
|---|---|---|
| Continued accumulation on dips | Bullish | |
| Apple | Long-term bet on edge AI | Bullish |
| Tesla | Trimming to fund SpaceX | Neutral |
| Palantir | Valuation high, holding without adding | Neutral |
Core Factors Behind the Correction: Quarterly Fund Rebalancing and Technical Support
Addressing the sharp mid-to-late June market correction, the host dissected various panic-driven theories. After filtering out geopolitical rumors (such as unverified Middle Eastern conflicts) and rate-hike panics, he pointed to mechanical end-of-quarter rebalancing by sovereign wealth and pension funds as the real driver. Since tech shares surged massively over the past quarter, conservative institutions were forced to systematically lock in profits on their overweight tech winners and reallocate those funds into underperforming sectors.
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